7월 FOMC 회의록 핵심내용 요약 정리

 

안녕하세요?

Stock Simple, 씸플입니다.

7월 FOMC 회의록 핵심내용 요약 정리 , 씸플분석 입니다.

---

✅12페이지나 되는 FOMC 회의록... 여러분을 위해 핵심내용만 정리해서 알려드립니다😎

---

Most market participants appeared to view a moderation of inflation and slower, but still positive, economic growth ahead as the most likely scenario.
📌대부분의 시장 참가자들은 인플레이션의 완화와 더디지만 여전히 긍정적인 경제 성장을 가장 가능성이 높은 시나리오로 보는 것으로 보였다.

Respondents to the Open Market Desk’s surveys of primary dealers and market participants marked down their growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 and attached higher odds than in the June survey to the possibility that the U.S. economy could enter a recession in coming quarters.
📌오픈마켓데스크가 1차 딜러와 시장 참여자를 대상으로 실시한 설문조사 응답자들은 2022년과 2023년 성장률 전망치를 하향 조정하고 6월 조사 때보다 높은 확률을 붙여 미국 경제가 다음 분기에 경기침체에 진입할 수 있다는 가능성을 제시했다.

most expected a 50 basis point increase in September to follow. 
📌대부분은 9월에 50베이시스 포인트 인상이 뒤따를 것으로 예상했다.

Regarding developments abroad, central banks in advanced foreign economies (AFEs) had quickened the pace of policy tightening in order to address above-target inflation.
📌해외 전개와 관련해 선진국(AFE)의 중앙은행들은 목표 이상의 인플레이션을 해결하기 위해 정책 긴축 속도를 가속화했다.

Eight advanced-economy central banks raised their policy rates over the period.
📌8개 선진국 중앙은행은 이 기간 동안 정책금리를 인상했다.

Along lines similar to U.S. developments, market implied policy rates in most AFEs fell at longer horizons and reflected expectations that policy rates would reach peak levels by early 2023. 
📌미국의 발전과 유사한 노선을 따라, 대부분의 AFE에서 시장 암시적 정책 금리는 더 긴 지평에서 하락했고 정책 금리가 2023년 초에 최고 수준에 도달할 것이라는 기대를 반영했다.

The information available at the time of the July 26-27 meeting suggested that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) had declined over the first half of the year. 
📌7월 26-27일 회의 당시 이용 가능한 정보는 미국의 실질 국내총생산(GDP)이 상반기에 걸쳐 감소했음을 시사했다.

However, the labor market continued to be very tight, and labor demand remained strong. 
📌그러나 노동시장은 계속해서 매우 타이트했고 노동수요는 여전히 강했다.

Consumer price inflation—as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—remained elevated in May, and available information suggested that inflation was still elevated in June.
📌개인소비지출(PCE) 가격지수의 12개월 변동률로 측정되는 소비자물가 상승률은 5월에 계속 상승했으며, 이용 가능한 정보에 따르면 6월에는 인플레이션이 여전히 상승하고 있다.

The private-sector job openings rate, as measured by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, declined further in May but remained at a high level.
📌'구직 및 이직률 조사'에서 측정한 민간부문 취업률은 5월에 더 감소했지만 높은 수준을 유지했다.

Nominal wage growth continued to be rapid and broad based, with average hourly earnings having risen 5.1 percent over the 12 months ending in June
📌명목 임금 상승률은 빠르고 광범위한 기반을 계속 유지했으며 6월에 끝난 12개월 동안 시간당 평균 소득이 5.1% 증가했다.

Consumer price inflation remained elevated. Total PCE price inflation was 6.3 percent over the 12 months ending in May, and core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices, was 4.7 percent over the same period. 
📌소비자 물가 상승률은 계속 상승했다. 5월로 끝나는 12개월 동안 총 PCE 물가상승률은 6.3%였고, 소비자 에너지 가격과 많은 소비자 식품 가격의 변동을 제외한 핵심 PCE 물가상승률은 같은 기간 4.7%였다.

The trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was 4.0 percent in May, 2.1 percentage points higher than its year-earlier rate of increase. In June, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) was 9.1 percent, while core CPI inflation was 5.9 percent over the same period. 
📌댈러스 연방준비은행이 구축한 12개월 PCE 물가 상승률의 평균 조정치는 5월 4.0%로 전년 동기 상승률보다 2.1%포인트 높았다. 6월 소비자물가지수(CPI)의 12개월 변동률은 9.1%인 반면 같은 기간 핵심 CPI 물가상승률은 5.9%였다.

Survey-based measures of shortrun inflation expectations remained elevated; by contrast, some measures of longer-term inflation expectations moved lower in recent weeks.
📌단기 인플레이션 기대치에 대한 조사 기반 측정은 계속 상승했습니다. 대조적으로, 장기 인플레이션 기대치에 대한 일부 측정은 최근 몇 주 동안 더 낮게 움직였습니다.

Available indicators suggested that real PCE rose at a modest pace in the second quarter, while business investment, residential investment, and government purchases all posted declines. 
📌가용 지표에 따르면 2분기 실질 PCE는 완만한 속도로 상승한 반면 기업 투자, 주거 투자, 정부 구매 등은 모두 하락세를 보였다.

Manufacturing output moved lower in May and June, and forward-looking indicators of manufacturing activity weakened broadly.
📌제조업 생산은 5월과 6월에 더 낮아졌고 제조업 활동 전망 지표는 크게 약화되었다.

Foreign economic growth slowed notably in the second quarter, as COVID-19-related lockdowns led to a sharp contraction in China and Russia’s war against Ukraine took a toll on foreign activity, especially in Europe.
📌코로나19 관련 봉쇄로 중국의 급격한 위축이 이어지고 러시아의 우크라이나와의 전쟁으로 특히 유럽에서의 대외 활동이 타격을 입으면서 2분기 대외 경제 성장세가 눈에 띄게 둔화됐다.

Indicators for June showed the Chinese economy rebounding as the lockdowns were eased. The global economy, however, continued to face headwinds from disruptions to the supply of energy, elevated political uncertainties in Europe, and tighter global monetary and financial conditions. 
📌6월 지표는 봉쇄가 완화되면서 중국 경제가 반등하는 모습을 보였다. 그러나 세계 경제는 에너지 공급 차질, 유럽의 정치적 불확실성 고조, 글로벌 통화 및 금융 상황의 긴축으로 인한 역풍을 계속 맞았다.

Although most commodity prices moved lower from elevated levels in recent weeks, foreign consumer price inflation continued to rise through June, mostly reflecting past increases in energy and food prices, but also a continued broadening of price pressures to core goods and services. 
📌비록 대부분의 상품 가격이 최근 몇 주 동안 상승 수준에서 낮게 움직였지만, 해외 소비자 물가 상승은 6월까지 계속 상승했으며, 대부분 에너지와 식품 가격의 과거 상승을 반영했지만, 또한 핵심 상품과 서비스로 가격 압력이 계속 확대되었다.

Many foreign central banks tightened monetary policy to address high inflation.
📌많은 외국 중앙 은행들은 높은 인플레이션을 해결하기 위해 통화 정책을 강화했다.

Investors’ concerns about global economic growth intensified amid weaker-than-expected data on economic activity and uncertainty about the supply of natural gas from Russia to Europe.
📌세계 경제 성장에 대한 투자자들의 우려는 경제 활동 데이터가 예상보다 부진하고 러시아에서 유럽으로 천연가스 공급이 불확실해진 가운데 더욱 커졌다.

Small businesses that borrow on a regular basis faced notably higher borrowing costs in June. Interest rates on most existing credit card accounts and on auto loans continued to trend upward. 
📌정기적으로 돈을 빌리는 중소기업들은 6월에 눈에 띄게 높은 차입 비용에 직면했다. 기존 카드 계좌 대부분과 자동차 대출 금리는 상승세를 이어갔다.

In contrast to many other borrowing rates, residential mortgage rates fell since the June FOMC meeting, in line with the drop in longer term yields, but remained near their highest levels since 2010.
📌다른 많은 대출 금리와 달리 주택 담보 대출 금리는 장기 수익률 하락에 따라 6월 FOMC 회의 이후 하락했지만 2010년 이후 최고 수준에 근접했다.

Business loans at banks expanded at a rapid pace in May and June, despite higher interest rates and a more uncertain economic outlook. 
📌5월과 6월 은행들의 기업대출은 높은 금리와 더욱 불확실한 경제 전망에도 불구하고 빠른 속도로 증가했다.

The projection for U.S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the July FOMC meeting was noticeably weaker than the June forecast, reflecting the economy’s reduced momentum and current and prospective financial conditions that were expected to provide less support to aggregate demand growth.
📌7월 FOMC 회의를 위해 참모진이 준비한 미국 경제활동 전망치는 6월 전망치보다 눈에 띄게 약했는데, 이는 총수요 증가에 대한 지원이 덜할 것으로 예상된 경제의 모멘텀 감소와 현재 및 미래 재정 여건을 반영했다.

 As a result, while the projected level of real GDP remained above potential this year, the gap was expected to have closed by the second half of 2023. 
📌이에 따라 올해 실질 국내총생산(GDP) 예상 수준은 잠재력 이상으로 유지됐지만, 2023년 하반기에는 격차가 좁혀질 것으로 예상됐다.

Similarly, the unemployment rate was projected to start rising in the second half of 2022 and to reach the staff’s estimate of its natural rate at the end of next year.
📌비슷하게, 실업률은 2022년 하반기에 상승하기 시작하여 내년 말에 직원의 자연률 추정치에 도달할 것으로 예상되었다.

Total PCE price inflation was expected to be 4.8 percent in 2022, and core inflation was expected to be 4.0 percent. 
📌총 PCE 물가 상승률은 2022년에 4.8%가 될 것으로 예상되었고, 핵심 물가 상승률은 4.0%가 될 것으로 예상되었다.

Core PCE price inflation was expected to step down to 2.6 percent in 2023 and to 2.0 percent in 2024; 
📌핵심 PCE 가격 인플레는 2023년 2.6%, 2024년 2.0%로 내려갈 것으로 예상됐다.

the projected deceleration in core prices was attributable to the anticipated resolution of supply–demand imbalances, a labor market that was expected to become less tight over the projection period, and a projected decline in import price inflation. 
📌핵심 물가의 예상 감속은 수요-공급 불균형의 예상되는 해결, 예측 기간 동안 덜 타이트해질 것으로 예상된 노동 시장, 그리고 예상된 수입 가격 인플레이션의 감소에 기인했다.

Total PCE inflation was expected to decline to 2.2 percent in 2023 and to 1.9 percent in 2024, reflecting the anticipated slowing in core inflation and a projected rapid deceleration in consumer food and energy prices in coming quarters.
📌총 PCE 물가상승률은 2023년 2.2%, 2024년 1.9%로 하락할 것으로 예상돼 근원 물가상승률 둔화와 향후 분기 소비자 식품 및 에너지 가격의 급격한 둔화가 예상된다.

The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for real activity were skewed to the downside, noting that supply chain bottlenecks, Russia’s war against Ukraine, weak incoming data on spending, and the tightening in financial conditions since the start of the year supported this assessment. 
📌참모들은 공급망 병목현상, 러시아의 우크라이나와의 전쟁, 취약한 지출 유입 데이터, 연초 이후 재정 여건 긴축 등이 이런 평가를 뒷받침한다고 언급하며 실물활동의 기준선 예측에 대한 리스크가 하향으로 치우쳤다고 계속 판단했다.

In their discussion of current economic conditions, participants noted that recent indicators of spending and production had softened. 
📌현재의 경제 상황에 대한 논의에서, 참가자들은 최근의 지출과 생산 지표가 완화되었다는 것에 주목했다.

Nonetheless, job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. Inflation remained elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. 
📌그럼에도 불구하고, 최근 몇 달 동안 일자리 증가는 견실했고 실업률은 낮은 수준을 유지했다. 인플레이션은 전염병과 관련된 수급 불균형과 식량 및 에너지 가격 상승, 더 광범위한 물가 압력을 반영하여 계속 상승하였다.

With regard to current economic activity, participants noted that consumer expenditures, housing activity, business investment, and manufacturing production had all decelerated from the robust rates of growth seen in 2021. 
📌현재의 경제 활동과 관련하여, 참가자들은 소비자 지출, 주택 활동, 기업 투자 및 제조업 생산이 모두 2021년에 나타난 견조한 성장률에서 둔화되었다고 언급했다.

The labor market, however, remained strong. Participants observed that indicators of spending and production suggested that the second quarter of this year had seen a broad-based softening in economic activity.
📌그러나 노동시장은 여전히 강세를 보였다. 참가자들은 지출과 생산 지표가 올해 2분기 경제활동이 전반적으로 완화되었음을 시사한다고 관찰했다.

Participants observed that the labor market remained strong, with the unemployment rate very low, job vacancies and quits close to historically high levels, and an elevated rate of nominal wage growth. 
📌참석자들은 실업률이 매우 낮고, 일자리 공실과 퇴직이 역사적으로 높은 수준에 근접하며, 명목 임금 상승률이 높아지는 등 노동시장이 강세를 유지하고 있다고 관측했다.

Many participants also noted, however, that there were some tentative signs of a softening outlook for the labor market: 
📌그러나 많은 참석자들은 노동 시장에 대한 전망이 완화될 수 있는 몇 가지 잠정적인 징후가 있다는 점에 주목했다. 

These signs included increases in weekly initial unemployment insurance claims, reductions in quit rates and vacancies, slower growth in payrolls than earlier in the year, and reports of cutbacks in hiring in some sectors. 
📌이러한 징후에는 주간 초기 실업 보험 청구 증가, 퇴직률과 공석 감소, 올해 초보다 느린 급여 증가, 일부 부문의 고용 감소 보고 등이 포함되었다.

Several participants observed that the moderation in labor market conditions might well lag the slowdown in economic activity. 
📌몇몇 참가자들은 노동 시장 상황의 완화가 경제 활동의 둔화에 훨씬 뒤처질 수 있다고 관찰했다.

Participants remarked that a moderation in labor market conditions would likely involve a decline in the number of job openings as well as a moderate increase in unemployment from the urrent very low rate. 
📌참석자들은 노동시장 상황의 완화는 현재 매우 낮은 실업률에서 온화한 실업률 증가뿐만 아니라 일자리 수의 감소를 수반할 것이라고 언급했다.

Participants noted that supply bottlenecks were continuing to contribute to price pressures. 
📌참석자들은 공급 병목 현상이 가격 압박에 계속 기여하고 있다는 점에 주목했다.

Participants emphasized that a slowing in aggregate demand would play an important role in reducing inflation pressures.
📌참가자들은 총수요의 둔화가 인플레이션 압력을 줄이는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것이라고 강조했다.

Uncertainty about the medium-term course of inflation remained high, and the balance of inflation risks remained skewed to the upside, with several participants highlighting the possibility of further supply shocks arising from commodity markets.
📌인플레이션 중기 진로에 대한 불확실성은 여전히 높았고, 몇몇 참석자들은 상품 시장에서 추가적인 공급 충격이 발생할 가능성을 강조하면서 인플레이션 위험의 균형이 상승으로 기울었다.

Participants saw the risks to the outlook for real GDP growth as primarily being to the downside. 
📌참가자들은 실질 GDP 성장률 전망에 대한 위험을 주로 하락으로 보았다.

Participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to returning inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective. 
📌참석자들은 인플레이션을 위원회의 2% 목표로 되돌리겠다는 강한 의지를 재확인했다.

it would better position the Committee to raise the policy rate further, to appropriately restrictive levels, if inflation were to run higher than expected
📌인플레이션이 예상보다 높을 경우, 위원회가 정책 금리를 적절히 제한적인 수준으로 더 높이도록 포지셔닝하는 것이 더 나을 것이다.

---

항상 글 읽어주셔서 감사합니다. (꾸벅)